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The Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons published a study in October 2007  entitled “The Breast Cancer Epidemic:  Modelling & Forecasts Based on Abortion and Other Risk Factors” which  showed that among seven risk factors, abortion is the "best predictor of breast cancer," and fertility is also a useful predictor.  

The study by Patrick Carroll, research director,  Pension & Population Research Institute, (PAPRI)  in London showed that countries with higher abortion rates, such as England & Wales, could expect a substantial increase in breast cancer incidence.  Where abortion rates are low (i.e., Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic) a smaller increase is expected. Where a decline in abortion has taken place, (i.e., Denmark and Finland) a decline in breast cancer is anticipated. 

Carroll used the same mathematical model for a previous forecast of numbers of breast cancers in future years for England & Wales based on cancer data up to 1997 that has proved quite accurate for predicting cancers observed in years 1998 to 2004. 

In four countries - England & Wales, Scotland, Finland and Denmark - a social gradient has been discovered (unlike that for other cancers) whereby upper class and up- wardly mobile women have more breast cancer than lower class women. This was studied in Finland and Denmark and the influence of known risk factors other than abortion was examined, but the gradient was not explained. 

Carroll suggests that the known preference for abortion in this class might explain the phenomenon. Women pursuing higher educations and professional careers often delay marriage and childbearing. Abortions before the birth of a first child are highly carcinogenic. 

Carroll used national data from nations believed to have "nearly complete abortion counts."  Therefore, his study is not affected by recall bias. 

"It's time for scientists to admit publicly what they already acknowledge privately among themselves  - that abortion raises breast cancer risk - and to stop conducting flawed research to protect the medical establishment from massive medical practice lawsuits," said Karen Malec, president of the  International Coalition on Abortion/Breast Cancer.  

Patrick Carroll’s full paper can be read at J Am Phys Surg Vol. 12, No. 3 (Fall  2007) 72-78.  Available at: http://www.jpands.org/vol12no3/carroll.pdf  

Below  are his summary and conclusions.

Summary 

In most countries considered, women now over age 45 have had more abortions and fewer children than previous generations of women, and a further increase in breast cancer incidence is to be expected. Variations in breast cancer incidence across social class and across geographic regions can also be expected to increase.

In England, a high rate of abortion leads to the large forecast increase. In Scotland, the lower abortion rate, offset by lower fertility than in England, leads to a slightly lower rate of increase expected. In both Irish jurisdictions, a continuation of low abortion rates and comparatively high fertility rates lead to low forecast increases in incidence of breast cancer. In Sweden a high abortion rate is offset partly by fewer nulliparous abortions and a high level of fertility and breastfeeding.

In the Czech Republic, the forecast of an increase in breast cancer incidence is largely the result of the fallen birth rate. In Finland and Denmark, lower abortion rates imply less breast cancer in the future.

The negative or reverse social gradient whereby upper class women have more breast cancer is apparent in four countries where it is measured: England & Wales, Scotland, Finland, and Denmark.

In all of these countries the known reproductive factors other than abortion fail to explain the gradient. But the known likelihood for upper class and upwardly mobile women to prefer abortions when pregnant could provide some explanation of this gradient. If abortions had been examined in the studies of this social gradient, the role of this factor could have been made clear.

Conclusion

The increase in breast cancer incidence appears to be best explained by an increase in abortion rates, especially nulliparous abortions, and lower fertility. And the social gradient, which is not explained by fertility, seems also attributable circumstantially to abortion. A linear regression model of successive birth cohorts of women with abortion and fertility as explanatory variables fitted to the cancer incidence up to 1977 has produced forecasts that have performed well in the years 1998–2004 in Great Britain.

The new forecasts for eight countries can be tested in the coming years.

The cover story in Time magazine, 15/10/07   is “Why Breast Cancer is Spreading  Around the World”.  It does not mention abortion but acknowledges that less than two children is a risk factor and   more babies and breast-feeding protect against breast cancer  -    Babette Francis